My greyhound can run faster than your honor student.

Thursday, March 31, 2005

Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel

NEW YORK (AFX) - Oil prices have entered the early stages of trading that could lead to a 'super spike' with the potential to move prices to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.

The call, which would mean a possible doubling of oil prices from their current level, sent crude back above $55 per barrel for the first time in a week. The contract for May delivery was last quoted up 2.4 percent at $55.30, having earlier touched a high of $55.55.

'The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us... The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve to keep potential revolution at bay,' said analyst Arjun Murti.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said $105 oil is technically possible but not likely for at least 3 years and only if a major supply disruption, such as a halt to imports from Saudi Arabia, occurred.

'The timing of the report was conducive to the rally,' Flynn said. 'It's just another reason to be long. There's no doubt we're in a new bull market for crude oil.' Hear audio interview.

John Kilduff, energy risk analyst Fimat USA, agreed that the $105 price assumes a major supply disruption in Saudi Arabia or a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S.
'I don't know how they get to that number, short of a significant supply disruption event occurring,' he said.

'It's more reflective, to be fair, of the psychology of the energy market right now that there's going to be tremendous demand growth in the late third and the fourth quarter of this year. That's going to put the producers of crude oil in an extremely challenging position in terms of meeting that demand, and that's what is being priced in right now.'

Analyst Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International said the Goldman call was irresponsible and 'clearly an attempt to talk up the market on nothing more than hot air. Goldman has huge speculative energy positions and they have no interest in watching it go down right now.'

Goldman's previous 'spike' high for oil was $80 a barrel. The brokerage also raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil - West Texas Intermediate spot oil, the benchmark crude that trades daily on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to $50 for 2005 and $55 for 2006. Its previous forecasts were $41 in 2005 and $40 in 2006.

Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to outperform the broader market.

The return could be 80 percent if prices hit a super spike, he said.

Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector 'at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies,' and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board.

[source]

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Last night after work I stopped at Home Depot to pick up some pre-emergent crabgrass control plus fertilizer. I intended to apply it last night, but I left work a little late and by the time I got home the sun was setting.

Tonight after work I got right home, changed clothes, and got the season's first lawn fertilizer down. I went for the Vigoro brand.

I put down five applications last year instead of my normal four. The extra one was a winter feeding in November or December. I am looking forward to see if I notice a difference once things start to green up here.

I finally closed out Sheri's 401(k) from a job she had in Columbus and transferred it to her current 401(k). It wasn't awful, just a lot of pain-in-the-butt phone calls and paper work. I just looked on-line and the check was accepted by her current company's plan and will be posted this Friday.

I still have two 401(k)'s at two different companies. I wonder if I can consolidate one into the other even though I am not an employee there anymore. Probably not, but I might make a phone call. I suppose opening an IRA wouldn't be a bad thing to do just to consolidate things into one place.

Monday, March 28, 2005

Taken from Peak oil puts us in a different reality by Marvin Gregory

Peak oil goes back to a concept introduced by M. King Hubbert that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve, reaching a peak in production similar to a rollercoaster slowing as it reaches the top of the curve and picking up speed again as it plunges off the other side.

Much debate has been spent on this point recently between those who believe that we will have an adequate amount of petroleum extending into the future and those who believe that the peak in production is nearly upon us or, in fact, may have already occurred.

The downside of this debate is that once the peak occurs, the price of oil will no longer be controlled from the production side, by the oil producers and the market, but instead will be controlled ruthlessly by the law of supply and demand. Oil will skyrocket in price and instead of selling for $35, $40 or even $50 a barrel, will quickly go to $100 or more a barrel. Such prices will injure economies the world over but will especially harm ours in that we consume a prodigious amount of oil each day, some 20 million barrels a day, or one-quarter of the world's supply.

We have not made any preparation for this coming shortfall. President Carter, as one example, ordered the placement of solar hot-water panels on the White House roof to save energy. President Reagan, upon taking office, ordered that the panels be taken down and junked.

One might say we have a difficult time ahead of us, but in my view this understates the case: We will have a monstrously difficult time ahead of us. We are terribly in debt and a crippled economy will only make this problem much harder to manage. We have continued our high level of immigration and population growth. We are choosing to make China our enemy at a time when China has bought Boeing airliners and holds a considerable amount of our debt and promises to buy more of our debt into the future.

We have made no effort to curtail our use of petroleum or the size of our vehicles yet everything, including the dollar, is balanced precariously on the edge of a cliff. We have chosen force and belligerency to maintain our place in the world and our access to oil when cooperation and the rule of law are the only real options open to us. Peak oil means that we are entering into a reality far different and much more threatening than the one to which we are accustomed.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

“My view is, without deviation, without exception, without any ifs, buts, or whereases, that freedom of speech means that government shall not do anything to people ... either for the views they have or the views they express or the words they speak or write.”
--Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black, 1968

Saturday, March 26, 2005

I dug out the stove-top moka coffee pot that Sheri got me for Christmas from before we were married. I haven’t made coffee with it in at least five years. I forgot how good the coffee is that it makes!

I did a little searching on the Web and it turns out that the moka pot is the way most Italians brew their coffee for their day-to-day drinking at home.

It is not nearly as strong as espresso, but it has a much heavier body than drip coffee. I think it is my new favorite way to make coffee.

Friday, March 25, 2005

I am not going to write anything about it now, partly because I am on a pen tablet without a keyboard and partly because I just don't feel like it right before the Easter holiday, but I predict the term "peak oil" is going to take on significant and lasting importance in everyone's life within the next 10 to 15 years. Google it and do a little reading up.
The Ikea that is being built 6 miles from our home will open this fall.

It was just announced today that across the street from the Ikea they will be building an 836,000 square foot upscale outdoor mall on 87 acres which is expected to include a Bass Pro Shop and perhaps a Marshall Field's.

Plans call for six sit-down restaurants, 90 apparel tenants, a 900-seat movie theater and an indoor go-cart racetrack

Construction is expected to start in the early spring, with an estimated opening of the Bass Pro Shop within a year.

Naperville, Illinois is Number One in a ranking of the nation's least stressful cities.

American City Business Journals publishes metropolitan business newspapers and came up with the listing, after a study of 245 cities with more than 100,000 residents. The group says Naperville earned the top spot because of its high incomes, low unemployment and stable families.
I'd like to have this really nice looking oil skin sou'wester.

Thursday, March 24, 2005

This is going to bother me for a while.

Monday, March 21, 2005

Make sure to click on the pick so you can see how a picture can be marked up. It's kinda cool.

102-0264_IMG
I figured out how to post the pictures directly in my blog from Flickr rather than just links to them!

IMG_3939
It turns out that you have to sign up for a free Flikr account if you want to add comments to pictures or see the pictures that are only viewable to friends and family.
I am always trying to find better ways to post our pictures. This new site called Flickr lets any one that looks at it add comments, tags, names, etc. This has two purposes. One, it is fun and encourages interaction. Two, it actually helps to organize and index our pictures. All of the comments are searchable after they are entered. So if I want to find all of the pictures of Lisa, anytime someone tags a picture with "Lisa" that will show up on a search. I think you can also draw boxes around areas of the pictures and lable those. So if there are pictures from a party, you can lable every person that appears in the picture. Sound cool?

First test pic.
I know this sounds creepy, but it is just so perfect the way it works. I hope it becomes more common-place.

Our Weekend

Friday
I stopped at my boss's house after work and picked up his dog. We are watching him for a week while they are out of town.

I brought him home and we spent a little bit of time getting him acclimated to the house (he has been here before) and then we went to the fish fry at the local VFW. It was good, but not as good as the ones that Mom and Dad go to. The fish was good, but probably came into the building already battered and frozen. It also would have been better if it was cooked in smaller batches and continually brought out to the buffet fresh and hot. Over all it was good, though, and it was fun to see all of the old veterans. It was $9 for all you could eat of:

Perch
Cod
Chicken nuggets
Fried chicken (very good. better than the fish)
Eggs and peppers (This is a Chicago thing. Some restaurants you can get it as a sandwich on a bratwurst bun)
Green beans
Romaine lettuce salad
Hard rolls
Soda pop
Coffee
Cookies and brownies

We came home and watched I Heart Huckabees. I wanted to like it, and it seemed just quirky enough for me to like, but I just couldn't get into it, and fell asleep. I can't recommend it.

Saturday
We had a couple of minor tune-up type problems with our bikes, so we took them back to the dealer Saturday morning. On my bike I couldn't shift the chain onto the smallest front sprocket, and on Sheri's bike the chain fell off on her maiden voyage. (I was able to put it back on with just my hands.) Both were simple and just took him a couple minutes each.

We brought the bikes home and then went to our coffee place for a couple of hours to hang out. My new favorite drink is called a shot in the dark. Some places also call it a depth charge, a redeye, or a hammerhead. At first it sounds like a novelty drink or a college dare, but it is really good. It is very simply a shot of espresso stirred into a cup of regular drip coffee. I like mine with a good amount of skim milk. The reason I like it is that it lasts longer than a cappuccino, not as strong as a straight shot of espresso, and has more body than just a cup of coffee. Usually too much of a cappuccino is foam. If I order it wet there is too much milk. With the shot in the dark I order it "with room" and then can control exactly how much milk I want.

We then went to Trader Joes for guacamole ingredients and then Bobak's because I had a craving for their fresh pickles.

Saturday night we ate some guacamole and watched The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie. I also wanted to like it, but I guess I just don't find SpongeBob all the funny. I think I fell asleep.

Sunday
We decided to go for a little road trip to Plano, IL for something different. They have a Super Wal-Mart there, so we knocked out a couple of errands with one stop. We had a little snack in their in-store snack bar. We bought a couple of locks for our bikes. On the way back we got a car wash in Yorkville and gas in Oswego.

We watched King Arthur that evening and really liked it. If I understand correctly, the movie tries to show the real Arthur behind the legend of King Arthur. Some things I didn’t know: Arthur fought for the Roman's. The Saxons (who were Germanic) kicked the Roman's out of Briton as they moved south. The Angels were the Saxon's neighbors. They joined up and, voila, the Anglo-Saxons. The movie is set around 300 CE, whereas the King Arthur of legend is usually depicted around 450 CE. We both enjoyed it. Some good fight scenes too. Give it a try.

Day Off

I didn't sleep very much last night, and I didn't have anything going on at work today, so I decided to stay home. I have been pretty productive too.

I did the final review of our taxes and then submitted them on-line.

On our home network we have been having problems with the shared printer that is hanging off of our Windows 98 machine. Our other machine runs Windows XP Professional and XP handles shared network resources better, so I thought hanging it off of the XP machine might clear up some problems. It seems to be working better and I learned some neat things.

At a professionally administered network you can browse all of the shared printers on the network, double click on the one you want to use and the drivers will automatically be installed to your PC and the printer will be ready to use.

After I installed the printer on the XP machine I went to the sharing tab and noticed a button called "Additional Drivers". I clicked it and what it lets you do is specify where the printer drivers are for different operating systems that might want to use the shared printer, just like on a professionally administered network. So I went out to the HP website and found the Windows 98 printer driver for our printer, downloaded it to our XP machine, and then pointed to it using the button I just mentioned. Then I went to the Windows 98 machine, pointed to the printer on the XP machine, and lo and behold, the printer drivers installed all by themselves!

I have been itching to go for a bike ride, and I couldn't wait for warmer weather any longer, so I bundled up and went for about a 3.5 mile ride. The first half of the ride was into the wind and mostly up-hill. My ears and face were hurting a little bit at my turn-around point. Coming back I had the wind mostly to my back, but even though I had lined leather gloves on, my fingers started to hurt from the cold. Heavy breathing of the cold air also hurt a little bit, but not too bad. I needed about 5 minutes on the couch to recover, but I feel pretty good now. I went about 3.4 miles in about 25 minutes, which means I was averaging about 8 mph. I can feel it in my thighs, and it feels good. I think I will like doing this.

The type face that you see on most speed limit signs, road direction signs, etc. is a font specified by Federal DOT regulations called Highway Gothic D. The software we have at work that we use to make signs of course has this font installed, but I didn't have it installed on the computer I use for mapping because it is a proprietary type face and each PC would need a license.

Last week I did some searching and found an almost exact freeware replica. It is called Blue Highway and can be found for download here.

I found the font at other sites, but they didn't have the "D" version of the font in the Zip file for some reason. This site does.

Occasionally I need to reproduce what a sign looks like on a map. In the past I have used Franklin Gothic Medium which comes installed with Windows. It is close but not exact.

Download it and make some street signs of your own!
I am finishing up my taxes today, and on the state portion of the Turbo Tax interview it asks if I received any "reparations from Nazi persecution."

These guys are thorough!

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

I grabbed a frozen dinner by accident that had a pasta side dish instead of a vegetable, but the carb profile is still pretty good.

The meal was Salisbury steak with macaroni and cheese and it was a Weight Watchers Smart Ones.

Total calories: 260
Total fat: 6 g (9% RDA)
Net carbs: 21 g
Dietary fiber: 4 g (16% RDA!)
Protein: 22 g (44% RDA)

The high protein and fiber are from the soy in the meat patty.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

This is the manual for the compass I ordered for work. It should be here between March 17 and March 31.

This is where I will get the declination value to enter into the compass.

A declination value is the difference between magentic north and true north for the location you are in. For my location it is about 2° 26' west. In California, Washington, etc. the declination is over 15°!

Monday, March 14, 2005

Q. What's the difference between and bad haircut and a good haircut?

A. Two weeks.



In two weeks I will have a good haircut.

Sunday, March 13, 2005

We got helmets today.

This is the one Sheri got:


And this is the one I got:
These are on sale at Meijer this week for $1.67 each. We look at the inserts in the Sunday paper for what healthy frozen meals are on sale and then stock up for our lunches. They usually rotate between Lean Cuisine, Weight Watchers, and Meijer's own brand (which are actually VERY good). Sometimes they will skip a week or two and sometimes they are back to back. When we stock up we get about 20 meals. I will take five at a time or so into work and just keep them in the freezer there. Sheri takes in one at a time. We both eat better than if we were to go out for lunch, and we also save a good deal of money, especially Sheri because lunch in the City is easily $5 to $8 if you are being careful, and $10 to $15 is nothing unusual.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

We bought our bikes today! Yeah! We also bought:

- a water bottle and cage for both
- a cargo rack over the rear wheels for each
- a kickstand for Sheri's bike
- a car rack

The car rack can attach in just a couple minutes to either the van or the sedan.

They make these neat bags for the cargo racks that have Velcro straps on the bottom that are designed to attach to the racks. The ones they had at the bike shop today had an insulated and water proof main compartment that you could put an ice pack and some sandwiches and sodas for lunch. It also had a few side pockets for keys, wallet, garage door opener, emergency tools, Chapstick, bandages, bandannas, sunglasses, etc. That was $50 and we will probably get one or two, we just want to look around and see what else is out there first.

We still need to buy a couple of locks, and flashing safety lights for dusk and nighttime riding. I am not sure about bike helmets. I will wait and see what percentage of other riders are wearing them on the trails. I think that they are more common and acceptable now than they were 10 years ago.

I also need to buy a tool with an Allen wrench for field adjustments. I found that my handle bar wasn't tightened all the way at the shop and need to stop back tomorrow and pick up a wrench.

We have miles and miles of bike trails in this area, but the maps of them available on the web are of very poor quality. I am thinking about strapping the GPS from work on the back when we ride certain trails for the first time and then making a map and posting it on the web in .pdf format.

There are a number of "Rails to Trails" paths around where they take abandoned railroad rights-of-way and convert them into bike paths. I want to give those a ride.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

The Peugeot brothers created their famous pepper mills long before they made cars. Their first mills date back to 1840.
We go through about 10,000 tons of road salt per winter.

Our annual cost for salt is about $400,000.

We have 30 trucks that each hold about 10 tons. We can load them up to 14 tons, but 10 tons is the usual amount, plus it makes it easier to make quick calculations.

We pay $40 per ton for salt, so a full truck costs about $400. Every truck dumping its load once costs about $12,000.

Morton colors their salt blue (I think it is actually a trademark) so the drivers can see it better against the white snow. We use salt from Cargill that is brown in color from the molasses that are added to it.

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Where to begin…

The first year or two in Chicago we would always get an invoice from our dentist a month or two after a visit for the amount insurance wouldn't pay. We thought this was a little strange since back in Columbus we just paid our $25 co-pay and that was it. The invoices from the Chicago dentist were usually around $50 - $75 if I recall correctly.

When I had some preventative work done which cost more it finally surfaced that our dentist was out-of-network. Crap! That's why we kept getting the invoices.

So off to find another in-network dentist. Six months later Sheri made an appointment for us with a new dentist. We pay our co-pay, get a cleaning, and then the next day get a phone call from the dentist saying that they are not in the same program that we have. Same insurance company, but a different plan. We have to pay the full amount of the visit. Crap!

So six months later Sheri finds another dentist for us. The next day we get a phone call. Same deal. Pay the full amount. Crap!

At this point Sheri is extremely frustrated. The next dentist appointment will be covered with an in-network dentist.

Fast forward six months to tonight. I get to the dentist's office first and begin filling out the paperwork. The office manager calls me up to the desk and informs me that the insurance company says our insurance was terminated as of the first of the year!

I call the customer service number of the insurance company and they say that Sheri's company did not send them the renewal information for the new year.

I call Sheri and tell her what happened and to just go home when she gets to the train station rather than to the dentist's office.

She is pissed and gets on the cell phone with the insurance company and her company's benefits department. She ends up going to the dentist's office hoping she can salvage the appointment and work things out in time. Long story short, there were multiple emotional breakdowns because of frustration.

I'm not sure which side she heard this from, but we should have been on the list, and we will be on the list, but the list is only published once a month so we can not see a dentist until April 1 now! And it was their screw up.

So fortunately I still had some of my homemade onion soup from the weekend. I warmed that up for Sheri to try and sooth her. I then talked her into spending some time in the garage throwing some things out, rearranging, talking a few things to the basement. The reason? To make room for a couple of new bikes. Maybe we will go tomorrow night buy them. I don't know if they will have them ready to take home or not though. The activity seemed to help change her state of mind. We spent about 20 – 30 minutes out there (it looks good!) and then she came upstairs to take a bath (another one of her stress defenses). We are going to go back downstairs now to get a little more food in her and admire the additional garage work I did after she went upstairs.

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

I think one of the most amazing things ever invented is RAID technology.

We had the backplane fail on our array and two drives were corrupted. It is rebuilding the bad drives right now, but I can still access my data. How is that any different than pure magic?

Monday, March 07, 2005

A Dog's Diary

7am - Oh Boy! Breakfast! My favorite!

9am - Oh Boy! A car ride! My favorite!

10am - Oh Boy! A walk! My favorite!

11am - Oh Boy! A car ride! My favorite!

Noon - Oh Boy! A nap! My favorite!

1pm - Oh Boy! The yard! My favorite!

3pm - Oh Boy! Animal Planet! My favorite!

4pm - Oh Boy! Dinner! My favorite!

5pm - Oh Boy! Grandma! My favorite!

7pm - Oh Boy! Playing with my "baby"! My favorite!

9pm - Oh Boy! Sleeping in my owner's bed! My favorite!




A Cat's Diary

Day 183 of my captivity....

My captors continue to taunt me with bizarre little dangling objects. They dine lavishly on fresh meat, while I am forced to eat dry cereal. The only thing that keeps me going is the hope of escape, and the mild satisfaction I get from ruining the occasional piece of furniture.

Tomorrow I may eat another houseplant. Today my attempt to kill my captors by weaving around their feet while they were walking almost succeeded; must try this at the top of the stairs. In an attempt to disgust and repulse these vile oppressors, I once again induced myself to vomit on their favorite chair; must try this on their bed.

Decapitated a mouse and brought them the headless body, in an attempt to make them aware of what I am capable of and to try to strike fear into their hearts. They only cooed and commented about what a good little kitty I was. Hmmm, not working according to plan.

There was some sort of gathering of their accomplices. I was placed in solitary confinement throughout the event. However, I could hear the noise and smell the food. More importantly I overheard that my confinement was because of my power of "allergies." Must learn what this is and how to use it to my advantage.

I am convinced the other captives are flunkies and maybe snitches. The dog is routinely released and seems more than happy to return. He is obviously an idiot. The bird, on the other hand, has got to be an informant and speaks with them regularly. I am certain he reports my every move. Due to his current placement in the metal room, his safety is assured.

But I can wait; it is only a matter of time...
It's funny how a person's idea of what they think is a useful web site changes as they progress in life.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

We bought 2,000 packets of Equal sweetener this weekend.
My French onion soup turned out great and was probably the best I've ever tasted. Sheri only ever recalls having French onion soup from a can and thought that it was supposed to be really salty. She liked it a lot too. The deep dark color was amazing.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

I made some rocking stock in the pressure cooker from three pounds of beef and veal bones, parsley, onions, celery, bay leaves, rosemary, and black pepper. Tomorrow it will merge with about three pounds of caramelized onions and a reduced bottle of beer to become French onion soup.
We were looking at bikes for Sheri today and we really liked this one. The brand is Del Sol, but it is really a Haro. Haro is world famous for their BMX bikes and they didn't want to turn off that hard-core market by putting the Haro name on something not intended for competition, so the Del Sol brand was born. Now I am thinking about getting a Del Sol too. We started out this morning with the idea of looking at Trek or Giant.