NEW YORK (AFX) - Oil prices have entered the early stages of trading that could lead to a 'super spike' with the potential to move prices to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
The call, which would mean a possible doubling of oil prices from their current level, sent crude back above $55 per barrel for the first time in a week. The contract for May delivery was last quoted up 2.4 percent at $55.30, having earlier touched a high of $55.55.
'The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us... The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve to keep potential revolution at bay,' said analyst Arjun Murti.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said $105 oil is technically possible but not likely for at least 3 years and only if a major supply disruption, such as a halt to imports from Saudi Arabia, occurred.
'The timing of the report was conducive to the rally,' Flynn said. 'It's just another reason to be long. There's no doubt we're in a new bull market for crude oil.' Hear audio interview.
John Kilduff, energy risk analyst Fimat USA, agreed that the $105 price assumes a major supply disruption in Saudi Arabia or a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S.
'I don't know how they get to that number, short of a significant supply disruption event occurring,' he said.
'It's more reflective, to be fair, of the psychology of the energy market right now that there's going to be tremendous demand growth in the late third and the fourth quarter of this year. That's going to put the producers of crude oil in an extremely challenging position in terms of meeting that demand, and that's what is being priced in right now.'
Analyst Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International said the Goldman call was irresponsible and 'clearly an attempt to talk up the market on nothing more than hot air. Goldman has huge speculative energy positions and they have no interest in watching it go down right now.'
Goldman's previous 'spike' high for oil was $80 a barrel. The brokerage also raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil - West Texas Intermediate spot oil, the benchmark crude that trades daily on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to $50 for 2005 and $55 for 2006. Its previous forecasts were $41 in 2005 and $40 in 2006.
Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to outperform the broader market.
The return could be 80 percent if prices hit a super spike, he said.
Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector 'at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies,' and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board.
[source]
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Last night after work I stopped at Home Depot to pick up some pre-emergent crabgrass control plus fertilizer. I intended to apply it last night, but I left work a little late and by the time I got home the sun was setting.
Tonight after work I got right home, changed clothes, and got the season's first lawn fertilizer down. I went for the Vigoro brand.
I put down five applications last year instead of my normal four. The extra one was a winter feeding in November or December. I am looking forward to see if I notice a difference once things start to green up here.
I finally closed out Sheri's 401(k) from a job she had in Columbus and transferred it to her current 401(k). It wasn't awful, just a lot of pain-in-the-butt phone calls and paper work. I just looked on-line and the check was accepted by her current company's plan and will be posted this Friday.
I still have two 401(k)'s at two different companies. I wonder if I can consolidate one into the other even though I am not an employee there anymore. Probably not, but I might make a phone call. I suppose opening an IRA wouldn't be a bad thing to do just to consolidate things into one place.
Tonight after work I got right home, changed clothes, and got the season's first lawn fertilizer down. I went for the Vigoro brand.
I put down five applications last year instead of my normal four. The extra one was a winter feeding in November or December. I am looking forward to see if I notice a difference once things start to green up here.
I finally closed out Sheri's 401(k) from a job she had in Columbus and transferred it to her current 401(k). It wasn't awful, just a lot of pain-in-the-butt phone calls and paper work. I just looked on-line and the check was accepted by her current company's plan and will be posted this Friday.
I still have two 401(k)'s at two different companies. I wonder if I can consolidate one into the other even though I am not an employee there anymore. Probably not, but I might make a phone call. I suppose opening an IRA wouldn't be a bad thing to do just to consolidate things into one place.
Monday, March 28, 2005
Taken from Peak oil puts us in a different reality by Marvin Gregory
Peak oil goes back to a concept introduced by M. King Hubbert that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve, reaching a peak in production similar to a rollercoaster slowing as it reaches the top of the curve and picking up speed again as it plunges off the other side.
Much debate has been spent on this point recently between those who believe that we will have an adequate amount of petroleum extending into the future and those who believe that the peak in production is nearly upon us or, in fact, may have already occurred.
The downside of this debate is that once the peak occurs, the price of oil will no longer be controlled from the production side, by the oil producers and the market, but instead will be controlled ruthlessly by the law of supply and demand. Oil will skyrocket in price and instead of selling for $35, $40 or even $50 a barrel, will quickly go to $100 or more a barrel. Such prices will injure economies the world over but will especially harm ours in that we consume a prodigious amount of oil each day, some 20 million barrels a day, or one-quarter of the world's supply.
We have not made any preparation for this coming shortfall. President Carter, as one example, ordered the placement of solar hot-water panels on the White House roof to save energy. President Reagan, upon taking office, ordered that the panels be taken down and junked.
One might say we have a difficult time ahead of us, but in my view this understates the case: We will have a monstrously difficult time ahead of us. We are terribly in debt and a crippled economy will only make this problem much harder to manage. We have continued our high level of immigration and population growth. We are choosing to make China our enemy at a time when China has bought Boeing airliners and holds a considerable amount of our debt and promises to buy more of our debt into the future.
We have made no effort to curtail our use of petroleum or the size of our vehicles yet everything, including the dollar, is balanced precariously on the edge of a cliff. We have chosen force and belligerency to maintain our place in the world and our access to oil when cooperation and the rule of law are the only real options open to us. Peak oil means that we are entering into a reality far different and much more threatening than the one to which we are accustomed.
Peak oil goes back to a concept introduced by M. King Hubbert that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve, reaching a peak in production similar to a rollercoaster slowing as it reaches the top of the curve and picking up speed again as it plunges off the other side.
Much debate has been spent on this point recently between those who believe that we will have an adequate amount of petroleum extending into the future and those who believe that the peak in production is nearly upon us or, in fact, may have already occurred.
The downside of this debate is that once the peak occurs, the price of oil will no longer be controlled from the production side, by the oil producers and the market, but instead will be controlled ruthlessly by the law of supply and demand. Oil will skyrocket in price and instead of selling for $35, $40 or even $50 a barrel, will quickly go to $100 or more a barrel. Such prices will injure economies the world over but will especially harm ours in that we consume a prodigious amount of oil each day, some 20 million barrels a day, or one-quarter of the world's supply.
We have not made any preparation for this coming shortfall. President Carter, as one example, ordered the placement of solar hot-water panels on the White House roof to save energy. President Reagan, upon taking office, ordered that the panels be taken down and junked.
One might say we have a difficult time ahead of us, but in my view this understates the case: We will have a monstrously difficult time ahead of us. We are terribly in debt and a crippled economy will only make this problem much harder to manage. We have continued our high level of immigration and population growth. We are choosing to make China our enemy at a time when China has bought Boeing airliners and holds a considerable amount of our debt and promises to buy more of our debt into the future.
We have made no effort to curtail our use of petroleum or the size of our vehicles yet everything, including the dollar, is balanced precariously on the edge of a cliff. We have chosen force and belligerency to maintain our place in the world and our access to oil when cooperation and the rule of law are the only real options open to us. Peak oil means that we are entering into a reality far different and much more threatening than the one to which we are accustomed.
Sunday, March 27, 2005
“My view is, without deviation, without exception, without any ifs, buts, or whereases, that freedom of speech means that government shall not do anything to people ... either for the views they have or the views they express or the words they speak or write.”
--Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black, 1968
--Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black, 1968
Saturday, March 26, 2005
I dug out the stove-top moka coffee pot that Sheri got me for Christmas from before we were married. I haven’t made coffee with it in at least five years. I forgot how good the coffee is that it makes!I did a little searching on the Web and it turns out that the moka pot is the way most Italians brew their coffee for their day-to-day drinking at home.
It is not nearly as strong as espresso, but it has a much heavier body than drip coffee. I think it is my new favorite way to make coffee.
Friday, March 25, 2005
I am not going to write anything about it now, partly because I am on a pen tablet without a keyboard and partly because I just don't feel like it right before the Easter holiday, but I predict the term "peak oil" is going to take on significant and lasting importance in everyone's life within the next 10 to 15 years. Google it and do a little reading up.
The Ikea that is being built 6 miles from our home will open this fall.
It was just announced today that across the street from the Ikea they will be building an 836,000 square foot upscale outdoor mall on 87 acres which is expected to include a Bass Pro Shop and perhaps a Marshall Field's.
Plans call for six sit-down restaurants, 90 apparel tenants, a 900-seat movie theater and an indoor go-cart racetrack
Construction is expected to start in the early spring, with an estimated opening of the Bass Pro Shop within a year.
It was just announced today that across the street from the Ikea they will be building an 836,000 square foot upscale outdoor mall on 87 acres which is expected to include a Bass Pro Shop and perhaps a Marshall Field's.
Plans call for six sit-down restaurants, 90 apparel tenants, a 900-seat movie theater and an indoor go-cart racetrack
Construction is expected to start in the early spring, with an estimated opening of the Bass Pro Shop within a year.
Naperville, Illinois is Number One in a ranking of the nation's least stressful cities.
American City Business Journals publishes metropolitan business newspapers and came up with the listing, after a study of 245 cities with more than 100,000 residents. The group says Naperville earned the top spot because of its high incomes, low unemployment and stable families.
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Monday, March 21, 2005
I am always trying to find better ways to post our pictures. This new site called Flickr lets any one that looks at it add comments, tags, names, etc. This has two purposes. One, it is fun and encourages interaction. Two, it actually helps to organize and index our pictures. All of the comments are searchable after they are entered. So if I want to find all of the pictures of Lisa, anytime someone tags a picture with "Lisa" that will show up on a search. I think you can also draw boxes around areas of the pictures and lable those. So if there are pictures from a party, you can lable every person that appears in the picture. Sound cool?
First test pic.
First test pic.
I know this sounds creepy, but it is just so perfect the way it works. I hope it becomes more common-place.
Our Weekend
Friday
I stopped at my boss's house after work and picked up his dog. We are watching him for a week while they are out of town.
I brought him home and we spent a little bit of time getting him acclimated to the house (he has been here before) and then we went to the fish fry at the local VFW. It was good, but not as good as the ones that Mom and Dad go to. The fish was good, but probably came into the building already battered and frozen. It also would have been better if it was cooked in smaller batches and continually brought out to the buffet fresh and hot. Over all it was good, though, and it was fun to see all of the old veterans. It was $9 for all you could eat of:
Perch
Cod
Chicken nuggets
Fried chicken (very good. better than the fish)
Eggs and peppers (This is a Chicago thing. Some restaurants you can get it as a sandwich on a bratwurst bun)
Green beans
Romaine lettuce salad
Hard rolls
Soda pop
Coffee
Cookies and brownies
We came home and watched I Heart Huckabees. I wanted to like it, and it seemed just quirky enough for me to like, but I just couldn't get into it, and fell asleep. I can't recommend it.
Saturday
We had a couple of minor tune-up type problems with our bikes, so we took them back to the dealer Saturday morning. On my bike I couldn't shift the chain onto the smallest front sprocket, and on Sheri's bike the chain fell off on her maiden voyage. (I was able to put it back on with just my hands.) Both were simple and just took him a couple minutes each.
We brought the bikes home and then went to our coffee place for a couple of hours to hang out. My new favorite drink is called a shot in the dark. Some places also call it a depth charge, a redeye, or a hammerhead. At first it sounds like a novelty drink or a college dare, but it is really good. It is very simply a shot of espresso stirred into a cup of regular drip coffee. I like mine with a good amount of skim milk. The reason I like it is that it lasts longer than a cappuccino, not as strong as a straight shot of espresso, and has more body than just a cup of coffee. Usually too much of a cappuccino is foam. If I order it wet there is too much milk. With the shot in the dark I order it "with room" and then can control exactly how much milk I want.
We then went to Trader Joes for guacamole ingredients and then Bobak's because I had a craving for their fresh pickles.
Saturday night we ate some guacamole and watched The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie. I also wanted to like it, but I guess I just don't find SpongeBob all the funny. I think I fell asleep.
Sunday
We decided to go for a little road trip to Plano, IL for something different. They have a Super Wal-Mart there, so we knocked out a couple of errands with one stop. We had a little snack in their in-store snack bar. We bought a couple of locks for our bikes. On the way back we got a car wash in Yorkville and gas in Oswego.
We watched King Arthur that evening and really liked it. If I understand correctly, the movie tries to show the real Arthur behind the legend of King Arthur. Some things I didn’t know: Arthur fought for the Roman's. The Saxons (who were Germanic) kicked the Roman's out of Briton as they moved south. The Angels were the Saxon's neighbors. They joined up and, voila, the Anglo-Saxons. The movie is set around 300 CE, whereas the King Arthur of legend is usually depicted around 450 CE. We both enjoyed it. Some good fight scenes too. Give it a try.
I stopped at my boss's house after work and picked up his dog. We are watching him for a week while they are out of town.
I brought him home and we spent a little bit of time getting him acclimated to the house (he has been here before) and then we went to the fish fry at the local VFW. It was good, but not as good as the ones that Mom and Dad go to. The fish was good, but probably came into the building already battered and frozen. It also would have been better if it was cooked in smaller batches and continually brought out to the buffet fresh and hot. Over all it was good, though, and it was fun to see all of the old veterans. It was $9 for all you could eat of:
Perch
Cod
Chicken nuggets
Fried chicken (very good. better than the fish)
Eggs and peppers (This is a Chicago thing. Some restaurants you can get it as a sandwich on a bratwurst bun)
Green beans
Romaine lettuce salad
Hard rolls
Soda pop
Coffee
Cookies and brownies
We came home and watched I Heart Huckabees. I wanted to like it, and it seemed just quirky enough for me to like, but I just couldn't get into it, and fell asleep. I can't recommend it.
Saturday
We had a couple of minor tune-up type problems with our bikes, so we took them back to the dealer Saturday morning. On my bike I couldn't shift the chain onto the smallest front sprocket, and on Sheri's bike the chain fell off on her maiden voyage. (I was able to put it back on with just my hands.) Both were simple and just took him a couple minutes each.
We brought the bikes home and then went to our coffee place for a couple of hours to hang out. My new favorite drink is called a shot in the dark. Some places also call it a depth charge, a redeye, or a hammerhead. At first it sounds like a novelty drink or a college dare, but it is really good. It is very simply a shot of espresso stirred into a cup of regular drip coffee. I like mine with a good amount of skim milk. The reason I like it is that it lasts longer than a cappuccino, not as strong as a straight shot of espresso, and has more body than just a cup of coffee. Usually too much of a cappuccino is foam. If I order it wet there is too much milk. With the shot in the dark I order it "with room" and then can control exactly how much milk I want.
We then went to Trader Joes for guacamole ingredients and then Bobak's because I had a craving for their fresh pickles.
Saturday night we ate some guacamole and watched The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie. I also wanted to like it, but I guess I just don't find SpongeBob all the funny. I think I fell asleep.
Sunday
We decided to go for a little road trip to Plano, IL for something different. They have a Super Wal-Mart there, so we knocked out a couple of errands with one stop. We had a little snack in their in-store snack bar. We bought a couple of locks for our bikes. On the way back we got a car wash in Yorkville and gas in Oswego.
We watched King Arthur that evening and really liked it. If I understand correctly, the movie tries to show the real Arthur behind the legend of King Arthur. Some things I didn’t know: Arthur fought for the Roman's. The Saxons (who were Germanic) kicked the Roman's out of Briton as they moved south. The Angels were the Saxon's neighbors. They joined up and, voila, the Anglo-Saxons. The movie is set around 300 CE, whereas the King Arthur of legend is usually depicted around 450 CE. We both enjoyed it. Some good fight scenes too. Give it a try.
Day Off
I didn't sleep very much last night, and I didn't have anything going on at work today, so I decided to stay home. I have been pretty productive too.
I did the final review of our taxes and then submitted them on-line.
On our home network we have been having problems with the shared printer that is hanging off of our Windows 98 machine. Our other machine runs Windows XP Professional and XP handles shared network resources better, so I thought hanging it off of the XP machine might clear up some problems. It seems to be working better and I learned some neat things.
At a professionally administered network you can browse all of the shared printers on the network, double click on the one you want to use and the drivers will automatically be installed to your PC and the printer will be ready to use.
After I installed the printer on the XP machine I went to the sharing tab and noticed a button called "Additional Drivers". I clicked it and what it lets you do is specify where the printer drivers are for different operating systems that might want to use the shared printer, just like on a professionally administered network. So I went out to the HP website and found the Windows 98 printer driver for our printer, downloaded it to our XP machine, and then pointed to it using the button I just mentioned. Then I went to the Windows 98 machine, pointed to the printer on the XP machine, and lo and behold, the printer drivers installed all by themselves!
I have been itching to go for a bike ride, and I couldn't wait for warmer weather any longer, so I bundled up and went for about a 3.5 mile ride. The first half of the ride was into the wind and mostly up-hill. My ears and face were hurting a little bit at my turn-around point. Coming back I had the wind mostly to my back, but even though I had lined leather gloves on, my fingers started to hurt from the cold. Heavy breathing of the cold air also hurt a little bit, but not too bad. I needed about 5 minutes on the couch to recover, but I feel pretty good now. I went about 3.4 miles in about 25 minutes, which means I was averaging about 8 mph. I can feel it in my thighs, and it feels good. I think I will like doing this.
I did the final review of our taxes and then submitted them on-line.
On our home network we have been having problems with the shared printer that is hanging off of our Windows 98 machine. Our other machine runs Windows XP Professional and XP handles shared network resources better, so I thought hanging it off of the XP machine might clear up some problems. It seems to be working better and I learned some neat things.
At a professionally administered network you can browse all of the shared printers on the network, double click on the one you want to use and the drivers will automatically be installed to your PC and the printer will be ready to use.
After I installed the printer on the XP machine I went to the sharing tab and noticed a button called "Additional Drivers". I clicked it and what it lets you do is specify where the printer drivers are for different operating systems that might want to use the shared printer, just like on a professionally administered network. So I went out to the HP website and found the Windows 98 printer driver for our printer, downloaded it to our XP machine, and then pointed to it using the button I just mentioned. Then I went to the Windows 98 machine, pointed to the printer on the XP machine, and lo and behold, the printer drivers installed all by themselves!
I have been itching to go for a bike ride, and I couldn't wait for warmer weather any longer, so I bundled up and went for about a 3.5 mile ride. The first half of the ride was into the wind and mostly up-hill. My ears and face were hurting a little bit at my turn-around point. Coming back I had the wind mostly to my back, but even though I had lined leather gloves on, my fingers started to hurt from the cold. Heavy breathing of the cold air also hurt a little bit, but not too bad. I needed about 5 minutes on the couch to recover, but I feel pretty good now. I went about 3.4 miles in about 25 minutes, which means I was averaging about 8 mph. I can feel it in my thighs, and it feels good. I think I will like doing this.
The type face that you see on most speed limit signs, road direction signs, etc. is a font specified by Federal DOT regulations called Highway Gothic D. The software we have at work that we use to make signs of course has this font installed, but I didn't have it installed on the computer I use for mapping because it is a proprietary type face and each PC would need a license.
Last week I did some searching and found an almost exact freeware replica. It is called Blue Highway and can be found for download here.
I found the font at other sites, but they didn't have the "D" version of the font in the Zip file for some reason. This site does.
Occasionally I need to reproduce what a sign looks like on a map. In the past I have used Franklin Gothic Medium which comes installed with Windows. It is close but not exact.
Download it and make some street signs of your own!
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
I grabbed a frozen dinner by accident that had a pasta side dish instead of a vegetable, but the carb profile is still pretty good.
The meal was Salisbury steak with macaroni and cheese and it was a Weight Watchers Smart Ones.
Total calories: 260
Total fat: 6 g (9% RDA)
Net carbs: 21 g
Dietary fiber: 4 g (16% RDA!)
Protein: 22 g (44% RDA)
The high protein and fiber are from the soy in the meat patty.
The meal was Salisbury steak with macaroni and cheese and it was a Weight Watchers Smart Ones.
Total calories: 260
Total fat: 6 g (9% RDA)
Net carbs: 21 g
Dietary fiber: 4 g (16% RDA!)
Protein: 22 g (44% RDA)
The high protein and fiber are from the soy in the meat patty.